6 Two 3 Nine

Expert Unexpert Advice

Van Hollen: “I believe Democrats are going to hold onto the House”. Alternate Headline: “Van Hollen is a dope”.

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Ah durrrrrrrrrrrr

It’s very unlikely that he actually means this. Still, it’s fun to envision him being totally surprised by the Republican wave, standing in the middle of some election night party screaming “What the hell is happening?!  Why didn’t anyone warn me about this?!?!?!”

The House Democratic campaign chief said Sunday that holding the House “is not a lost cause.”

“I think all these Washington pundits are going to be surprised,” the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), said on “Fox News Sunday.” “I believe Democrats are going to hold onto the House.”

While he insisted that he’s “not acting as if everything is great,” Van Hollen said the key difference between 2010 and 1994, when Democrats last suffered a sweeping congressional defeat, was that polls show voters are dissatisfied with Democrats but do not see the GOP as a viable governing alternative.The National Republican Congressional Committee fired back that Van Hollen is in denial. “They say the first step in recovery is admitting you have a problem, yet Chris Van Hollen and his party are still completely oblivious to the intervention they’re about to receive from voters on Tuesday night,” said NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay

In fairness, FiveThirtyEight projects there’s a 16% chance Van Hollen is right.  That said, I think that number is very generous to the Dems.  There has been an overwhelming trend of dramatically oversampling Democrats this cycle, so I won’t be surprised if Republicans overpreform.

Should be fun.

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Written by updowndownup

October 31, 2010 at 5:00 pm

Posted in Politics

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