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Posts Tagged ‘Carol Moseley Braun

The Decline of Daley?

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The final countdown

If you ever wanted to see a sign of Mayor Daley’s waning influence, it’s in the mayoral candidates’ responses to the drivers getting stranded on Lake Shore Drive during the blizzard. (Hat tip to CapFax)

“If reports that Mayor Daley was not involved in the actual decision making on the city’s response are true, that’s a disappointment, ”Carol Moseley Braun said through a spokeswoman.

Referring to the now internationally-notorious traffic mess along the lakefront, Emanuel said in a written statement: “We need to get to the bottom of what happened last night on Lake Shore Drive — with hundreds of passengers stranded for hours, it’s clear that there were mistakes made that we can never let happen again. And we need a comprehensive review to determine what went wrong and what went right throughout the city.”

Granted, no one running for Mayor was going to say “Listen, if those idiots couldn’t be bothered to recognize that a highway RIGHT NEXT TO THE GODDAMN LAKE might have some problems during the third biggest snow storm in the history of the city of Chicago they should have just been left there to freeze!”, but there was a time no one would consider taking potshots, even as relatively tame as Rahm’s, at Daley.

Seems like those with money in the game are banking on the assumption that Daley just doesn’t have much muscle left.

A top-level City Hall meeting aimed at ending the dispute over financing the stalled O’Hare expansion project was abruptly canceled Thursday by the CEOs of United and American airlines, the  mayor’s press secretary said.

City officials said they initially thought cancellation of the meeting this afternoon between Mayor Richard Daley, United CEO Jeffery Smisek and American CEO Gerald Arpey was due to the blizzard that socked the Chicago region two days ago.

But the airlines appear to be stalling on Daley’s demand that they bring new proposals to the table to jump-start the construction of new runways at O’Hare International Airport.

“At this point, the mayor has begun to wonder about the sincerity of their efforts to meet with him,” said press secretary Jacquelyne Heard. Daley even offered to see them on a Sunday, she said.

Daley has tried to set up alternative dates, offering four or five options, all of which were rejected, leading Daley to believe the delay is intentional, Heard said.

The cold reality is that people know Daley’s not going to be around long enough to get revenge against those who do him wrong now.  That means that even the people who don’t want to do him wrong have to when circumstances call for it (a la Rahm’s statement).  That said, the last arrow in Daley’s quiver is that of public opinion.  Although he may be kind of damaged goods after the more idiotic responses to the blizzard, if Daley’s going to have any clout left it’s going to come from people who appreciate his accomplishments (and how they are indicative of his love of this city and his knowledge of what makes it work).  Might be too late though, we’ll see…

Carol Moseley Braun to Watkins – “You Were on Crack!”

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The video really speaks for itself, so please watch it.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Carol Moseley Braun to Watkins – “You Were on C…, posted with vodpod

Somewhere I’m sure Malcom X is very proud of the solidarity in Chicago’s black community.

Watkins fired the first shot accusing Moseley Braun of leaving public life for several years.

“I did not even know the woman lived in the city of Chicago because I haven’t heard her voice on the street,” Watkins said.

“Patricia, just because you didn’t know who I was for the last seven years is because you were on crack,” Moseley Braun said.

While Watkins admits she was a drug addict at 19, she says she was never addicted to crack.

“She could be sued for slander,” Watkins said.

Even with the threat of a lawsuit, Moseley Braun is not apologizing for her remarks.

“When someone slaps you like that then you have to tell the truth and that is what I did,” Moseley Braun said.

If you’re not familiar with Watkins, you’re not alone.  She’s been polling at 1%.  Apparently Braun thought that this 1% was so important it was worth it, though…

Written by updowndownup

January 31, 2011 at 3:40 pm

Maybe This Whole Thing Was Just What Rahm Needed – Rahm Finally Over 50%

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50%

I don’t know how I missed this, but yesterday there was an interesting poll on CapFax.  It’s a poll from We Ask America, sponsored by the Chicago Retail Merchants Association (so take it for what you will), and it shows not only people overwhelmingly want Rahm on the ballot, but he’s finally crossed over the magic number.  I guess it’s a case of don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

It makes sense, considering Rahm coming off the ballot made people look into the abyss and see there’s no one there they could even imagine wanting as Mayor.  It’s fitting that the number of undecideds gets a significantly bigger bump without Rahm than any of the other candidates.  The upside to this is that if Rahm stays on the ballot, this thing should be over with the primary, which means we won’t have an additional month and a half of this nonsense.

Written by updowndownup

January 27, 2011 at 8:47 am

Response to “And the Ordinary People Said” on Rahm Residency: I Really Hope “Ordinary People” Aren’t This Dumb

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Foolishness

Over at “And the Ordinary People Said” blog on Chicago Now, Marksallen has attempted to string together an argument entitled “Why the Illinois Supreme Court Must Remove Rahm Emmanuel From the Ballot”.  It’s remarkably trite, but I’d like to go through it piece by piece.  I’ll try to avoid being a snob about the parts that don’t even resemble the english language (e.g. “Even in his response to the ruling and throughout this challenge period Rahm Emanuel has offered no respect for the legal anticipated legal opinion versus political opinions saying that it is the ‘public opinion’ that matters over the legal opinions.”) as I’m sure every blogger could be found guilty of such mistakes at some point.

 

His first argument:

A ruling in favor of Rahm staying on the ballot does a disservice to the Federal elected officials, and more specifically The White House staffers who like Rahm went to DC to “serve the President,” and without the same financial status of Emanuel paid two sets of rent for their DC apartments as well as maintaining the costs of sustaining their local residences to the point that whenever they decided to visit their home residence, there was never any confusion of where those federal elected officials or White House staffers could lay their heads. Why should these federal officials and White House staffers pay the expense to sustain both residences to keep their home residence and not Rahm.?

So the argument here is that allowing Rahm on ballot wouldn’t be fair to David Axelrod?  Does this even require a rebuttal?  If so, I guess it would be this: it has absolutely nothing to do with law.  If the people who maintain homes both in Chicago and DC do so because they mistakenly thought they’d need to do so in order to vote in Chicago, that’s 100% on them.  The unspoken premise of this argument is “If someone misunderstands the law and acts based on this misunderstanding, the laws must be applied as per the misunderstanding so that everyone is equally constrained by this individual’s mistake.”  This, obviously, is ridiculous.

And how far does “intent” go when considering the clear “residency” requirements that forced city workers, police and firefighters to actually prove where they laid their heads in order to keep their city jobs?

According to the law, it would go very far.  That said, it’s a lot harder to claim you have an intent to return if you move outside of the city while working in the city.  It’s much easier if you’re working in Washington DC, unless you think that a daily commute from Chicago to Washington DC wouldn’t be all that bad.

Aside from that, even if you take intent off of the table, the Supreme Court is responding to the Appellate decision, which hinged on the word “residency” not meaning “residency”.  The only defense of this aspect of the decision offered was this:

over 30 ordinary citizens offered their objections on Emanuel’s qualifications as a “voter” versus that of a “candidate,”

If we’re going on the law, it wouldn’t matter if every single person in the city of Chicago offered their objections on this subject.

If you look over the rest of Marksallen’s posts, what he’s actually trying to argue becomes much clearer.  He’s arguing that Rahm needs to be off the ballot because Rahm takes votes away from Carol Moseley Braun.

Rahm Inching Towards Majority, Braun Doesn’t Break $1 mil

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Plurality

New poll, pretty much same as the last, save for a surge for Chico.  Maybe enough to make him competitive with Braun for 2nd, but probably not.

Rahm Emanuel is closing in on the majority he needs to end the mayor’s race next month and avoid a one-on-one runoff, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows.

The former White House chief of staff had the support of 44 percent of those surveyed. Emanuel enjoys a wide lead among women and white voters and has substantial support among African-American and Latino voters.

Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and onetime Chicago Board of Education President Gery Chico are battling for second place in hopes of advancing to an April runoff. But they also must stop Emanuel from getting more than 50 percent and winning outright on Feb. 22.

Braun had 21 percent support and Chico 16 percent, with City Clerk Miguel del Valle at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided. The poll of 708 likely registered voters was conducted Saturday through Wednesday and has an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.

If you don’t watch TV in the Chicago media market, Chico has been up on the air, with an ad so terrible you really have to ask “Why?” Rahm’s ad buys seem to be amping up heading into the election, but considering he’s been in the 40-45% range for a month or so, it sure seems like the impact of his ads has already been priced into the polls.  The wild card would be if Carol Moseley Braun goes up on the air, but that is seeming…unlikely.

Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has a huge money advantage over his rivals in the race for Chicago mayor, financial reports filed Thursday show.

Emanuel started January with $8.3 million on hand, whereas former Chicago schools president Gery Chico had $2 million as of Dec. 31, according to reports the campaigns filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections. Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun has about $125,000 on hand, her spokeswoman Renee Ferguson said.

We’re reaching the point where the question is about ground game, turnout rates and voter enthusiasm.  As there hasn’t been a competitive mayoral election in over 2 decades in Chicago, it’s hard to say how that’s going to work out.

Going off of my completely uninformed gut, these are my guesses: Rahm’s going to have a hell of a GOTV operation.  There’s no way an old campaign salt like him overlooks the importance of that.  I’d imagine the same is true, but to a much lesser extent, for Braun.  That said, she doesn’t have a lot of money, so she’s going to depend on having a lot of volunteer support (or maybe help from whoever is paying her 4 mortgages).  The Chico campaign has never been kicking on all cylinders, gotta assume that trend is going to continue.

So if we assume that undecideds are less likely to vote come election day, and instead make up about 6% of the final electorate, that moves Rahm up to 45% just by shrinking the voter pool.  There are about half as many undecided whites as there are blacks, but historically whites vote more than blacks, so let’s say out of the 6% undecideds who end up voting, 3% black, 2% white, 1% hispanic.  I’d say from that we could assume they’d break 3% Rahm, 2% Braun, 1% Chico.  So Rahm’s at 48%.  Ground game could put him over the top.

So 50% on election day is within striking distance, but it’s hard to say how close it is without crosstabs that show enthusiasm.  I have to guess that Braun’s supporters are the most enthusiastic, as they’ve come to her despite the fact she’s done very little to actually attract them (meaning they’re not passive voters).  I guess we’ll see.

Is Rahm Getting Worried?

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Ceilings

If he isn’t, he should be.  That said, it sure looks like he is.

The Chicago for Rahm campaign issued a press release Thursday evening touting Emanuel’s plan for immigration reform…in Chicago.

“Just because Congress has yet to pass the Dream Act doesn’t mean we will wait for progress in Chicago,” Emanuel said in a statement. “All children in Chicago deserve to have access to a quality education, and we will make sure they have that opportunity.”

Emanuel’s plan would not provide a path to citizenship as a national DREAM Act would, but would “allow these children to access the same financial aid opportunities as every other child,” according to his campaign.

Now it’s an awfully big roll out for an announcement that he’s essentially planning on being squishy when it comes to illegal immigrants.  As if there’s someone running for Mayor who’s gonna take a hard line.

De Valle is pissed, which is pretty funny.

This obvious pander comes on the heels of a Teamsters Poll showing that he finally has an opponent who’s broken through the 12% ceiling (and has done so with vengeance).

Emanuel leads former U.S. senator Carol Moseley Braun, 42%-26%, in a survey commissioned by the Chicago Teamsters. Emanuel led with 36% in the Teamsters’ November poll.

Rahm has seemingly plateaued in the low 40’s, painfully close to the point where he could avoid a runoff.  Frankly, I thought the whole “get Meeks and Davis out so we can have a consensus black candidate” was dumb, because even if Davis’ and Meeks’ supporters broke for Braun 5-1, 10-1 or whatever, they still ran more of a risk of pushing Rahm over the 50% mark than they did of making sure whoever came in 2nd in the primary wasn’t Chico (which, of course, doesn’t matter if Rahm gets to 50).

What we see here is that seemingly every single Davis or Meeks supporter went to Braun, which is a staggering concept.

What’s worse for Rahm is it seems like there is now not only a consensus black candidate, but there’s a consensus non-Rahm candidate.  With Braun’s lead over Chico now matching Rahm’s lead over her, Millionaire Lobbyist isn’t going to go anywhere.

This is also an opportunity.  Braun’s been banging the nepotism equivalent of the black power drum pretty hard for a while, and it’s going to take some work for her to start building a cross-racial base.   Between the whites supporting Chico and the hispanics supporting DeValle, there are just about enough there to push Rahm past the magic number.  IF they can be wiggled loose.  And considering that neither Chico nor De Valle have a snowball’s chance in hell at the number 2 spot, it’s hard to imagine there aren’t a few there who actually want their votes to count…

Exit question:  If Braun isn’t making any money, how the hell does she pay her 4 mortgages on her multi-million dollar Hyde Park mansion?  Haha, oh yeah…

One is a loan from First Midwest Bank for $97,025, according to records on file at the Cook County Recorder of Deeds, and the other she owes to a millionaire TV station owner who is one of her past campaign contributors.

Written by updowndownup

January 14, 2011 at 8:42 am

New Poll – Rahm 39%, Carol Moseley Braun 12%, Chico 9%

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50%

Bright side – if Danny Davis and James Meeks both get out, all of their supporters go to Carol Moseley Braun, and she then gets all of the undecideds, she’s got a clean 4% on Rahm.  No problem, right?

 

Just like the last poll, Rahm leads in all racial demographic groupsAfrican-Americans split 31.7% Rahm, 20.4% Braun, 13% Davis, 9% Meeks.  Hispanics split 28.4% Rahm, 22.1% DeValle and 17.4 for Chico.  Whites split 52.1% Rahm, 11.5% Chico.

It seems fairly clear that Rahm’s going to get the most votes in February.  Barring something happening that completely changes things, that should be a walk.  The bigger question is if he crosses 50%.  If he does, game over, he’s the new mayor.  If he doesn’t, then there’s a runoff against whoever comes in 2nd.

Unfortunately the crosstabs they give are incomplete, so there’s not a lot of info to divine who exactly these undecided voters are.  We know they’re disproportionately from the North Central Wards (but more or less evenly distributed), we know they’re disproportionately young, and we know that they don’t like answering questions about their race.

If you don’t like Rahm, it seems like it comes down to Chico and Braun.  With Braun, you have to assume she’ll be able to peel off some African-American support from Rahm.  If he gets knocked down to 20% of the African-American vote, that could definitely make an impact on Rahm’s ability to avoid a runoff.  Where things get tricky for Braun is if Davis or Meeks step aside to avoid splitting the African-American vote.  Although on its face one would assume their votes would head towards Braun, Rahm’s shown an ability to attract African-American support.  Every vote for Davis and Meeks is a vote that doesn’t get Rahm 1 vote closer to 50%.  As it seems unlikely at best that Braun could get 50%, after she gets 1 vote ahead of whoever comes in 3rd all that matters is that other votes don’t go to Rahm.  That is to say that if Davis dropped out Braun could get 99.9% of his support and she still would have been better served by him staying in.

Chico’s situation is a bit more unique.  Other than Rahm, Chico’s got the most cross-racial support.  It’s possible he could leverage his support from white voters to make an electability argument to DeValle supporters, which could put him in striking distance of coming in 2nd in February.  He’s done a good job getting penetration with his platform, which could explain his success with white voters.  The strength of his position is that he seems to be the top alternative to Rahm for white voters, if Rahm stalls at any point, he’s positioned to get some runoff from Chicago’s largest racial demographic.  He also doesn’t share Braun’s problem with Davis and Meeks.  Chico’s got 5 points on anyone else (who isn’t Rahm) amongst whites, so every vote he picks up in that demo is probably a Rahm vote.

What will be interesting to see is what happens when Chico and Braun start balancing taking down Rahm with trying to make sure they wind up #2.  At a certain point they’ll start undercutting each other at every opportunity, which they both have to realize could hand 50% to Rahm.