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Posts Tagged ‘mayor

Carol Moseley Braun to Watkins – “You Were on Crack!”

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The video really speaks for itself, so please watch it.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Carol Moseley Braun to Watkins – “You Were on C…, posted with vodpod

Somewhere I’m sure Malcom X is very proud of the solidarity in Chicago’s black community.

Watkins fired the first shot accusing Moseley Braun of leaving public life for several years.

“I did not even know the woman lived in the city of Chicago because I haven’t heard her voice on the street,” Watkins said.

“Patricia, just because you didn’t know who I was for the last seven years is because you were on crack,” Moseley Braun said.

While Watkins admits she was a drug addict at 19, she says she was never addicted to crack.

“She could be sued for slander,” Watkins said.

Even with the threat of a lawsuit, Moseley Braun is not apologizing for her remarks.

“When someone slaps you like that then you have to tell the truth and that is what I did,” Moseley Braun said.

If you’re not familiar with Watkins, you’re not alone.  She’s been polling at 1%.  Apparently Braun thought that this 1% was so important it was worth it, though…

Written by updowndownup

January 31, 2011 at 3:40 pm

Maybe This Whole Thing Was Just What Rahm Needed – Rahm Finally Over 50%

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50%

I don’t know how I missed this, but yesterday there was an interesting poll on CapFax.  It’s a poll from We Ask America, sponsored by the Chicago Retail Merchants Association (so take it for what you will), and it shows not only people overwhelmingly want Rahm on the ballot, but he’s finally crossed over the magic number.  I guess it’s a case of don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

It makes sense, considering Rahm coming off the ballot made people look into the abyss and see there’s no one there they could even imagine wanting as Mayor.  It’s fitting that the number of undecideds gets a significantly bigger bump without Rahm than any of the other candidates.  The upside to this is that if Rahm stays on the ballot, this thing should be over with the primary, which means we won’t have an additional month and a half of this nonsense.

Written by updowndownup

January 27, 2011 at 8:47 am

Rahm Off the Ballot – Clusterfuck to Commence Update: Rahm’s Attorneys File Emergency Motion to Supreme Court

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Uh oh

Chicago News Cooperative just reported that the Illinois Appeals Court has overturned the previous ruling on Rahm Emmanuel’s residency, ruling that he’s not legally a resident of Chicago.  More updates to come…

Update I: So the first thing, this was going to go to the Illinois Supreme Court no matter what.  He wouldn’t have gotten the previous rulings in his favor if the powers that be didn’t want him to be the next mayor, so I’d say chances are good this is going to be overturned by the Supreme Court (as they tend to rule as they’re told)

That said, Melissa Clouthier is saying that the Illinois Supreme Court is slow to overturn appellate decisions.  So we’ll see.

Update II: Alright, so supposing Rahm doesn’t get back on the ballot, what does this mean?  He’s got the most support from all 3 racial demographics, meaning there are a lot of free votes for everyone playing the race game.  This means a lot of votes from Braun and a lot of votes for Chico.

This definitely helps Chico a lot.  He’s the only one with the money to be up on the air in any capacity, and he’s got significant support amongst whites and hispanics.  If the ruling stands, this is almost certainly going to mean a runoff between Braun and Chico, barring white people getting comfortable with Braun or Chico somehow learning how to run a campaign that’s anywhere near the level of Rahm’s.

Update III: Thank you Mark Knoller, the ruling is available here.

Update IV: This ruling seems kind of goofy.  So the court rejects the intent to return as qualifying as residency argument, which makes sense.  They also put forward that the definition of “reside” is to actually live there, which makes enough sense.  Where is gets kind of silly is the issue of whether the “business of the United States” argument saves Rahm.

The code reads as such:

Ҥ 3-2. (a) A permanent abode is necessary to constitute

a residence within the meaning of Section 3-1. No elector or spouse shall be deemed to have lost his or her residence in any precinct or election district in this State by reason of his or her absence on business of the United States, or of this State.” 10 ILCS 5/3-2(a)

The court accepts that Rahm serving as Chief of Staff to the President of the United States qualifies as “business of the United States”, but then argues that when they say “residence” they only mean in terms of whether one qualifies as a voter, and not in any other residency context.  The basis of this conclusion is that the code specifies an “elector” and not a candidate, and that the section of the law is specifically about voter qualifications.  They follow this up that being a qualified elector and being a resident are two separate requirements (which makes enough sense, as they are both stated) and that subsequently the residency requirements for a voter aren’t the same as the residency requirements for a candidate (which is dumb).

This strikes me as being a really dumb argument, as they are arguing that he simultaneously is and isn’t a resident of Chicago.

Now imagine the judge is a witness being questioned.  “Is Rahm and elector?” “Yes.” “Did Rahm only leave because of the business of the United States?” “Yes.” “And does the statute say no elector shall be deemed to have lost his residency because of the business of the United States?” “Yes.” “So do you deem he, an elector, lost his residency because he left due to the business of the United States?” “Yes.”

Moronic.

Update V: New twist – the ballots are being printed tonight…sans Rahm.  Obviously they can still be reprinted, but this is Chicago, they’ll only be reprinted if the powers that be decide they want them to be reprinted.  This is smelling more and more like some powerful insiders want to get Rahm over a barrel before they let him get elected (or they want Chico, who’s more than willing to be over a barrel).

Don’t forget, we elect our judges here…meaning they’re just as corruptable as any other politician.

Update VI: The dissent is a very good read.  Here’s a key part:

Because the candidate had established his Chicago residency, it is presumed to continue until the contrary is shown, and the burden of proof is on the person who claims that there has been a change. Hatcher v. Anders, 117 Ill. App. 3d 236, 239 (1983). In the foundational case Kreitz v. Behrensmeyer, 125 Ill. 141 (1888), the supreme court stated:

“We have frequently held that when a party leaves his residence, or acquires a new one, it is the intention with which he does so that is to control. Hence the shortest absence, if, at the time, intended as a permanent abandonment, is sufficient, although the party may soon afterwards change his intention; while, on the other hand, an absence for months or even years, if all the while intended as a mere temporary absence for some temporary purpose, to be followed by a resumption of the former residence, will not be an abandonment.” Kreitz, 125 Ill. at 195.

The majority does not acknowledge Kreitz even though it has been the leading case defining “residence” since its issuance 122 years ago. To the extent the majority addresses the long-held principle that a party’s intention when he leaves or acquires his residence largely controls the determination of whether he has abandoned the residence, the majority distorts this principle (see discussion of Smith below). Then, the majority simply reads the principle out of its analysis, choosing instead to adopt a completely new standard.

Update VII: CapFax is reporting that Rahm’s attorneys have filed an emergency motion with the Illinois Supreme Court.  It’s available here.

My operating theory here is that this is just a question of whether Ed Burke thinks Chico’s a safe pick in a runoff against Braun.  I think it’s safe to say, due to the timing, that this ruling is Burke’s doing.  Remember, judges are elected in Illinois.  That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re corrupt, just like no other politicians in Chicago/Illinois are necessarily corrupt.  He’d obviously approve someone who’d jump at the opportunity to be his puppet (Chico) but he definitely prefers someone he can work with over the shitshow Braun would put on.

Written by updowndownup

January 24, 2011 at 6:21 pm

Rahm Inching Towards Majority, Braun Doesn’t Break $1 mil

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Plurality

New poll, pretty much same as the last, save for a surge for Chico.  Maybe enough to make him competitive with Braun for 2nd, but probably not.

Rahm Emanuel is closing in on the majority he needs to end the mayor’s race next month and avoid a one-on-one runoff, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows.

The former White House chief of staff had the support of 44 percent of those surveyed. Emanuel enjoys a wide lead among women and white voters and has substantial support among African-American and Latino voters.

Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and onetime Chicago Board of Education President Gery Chico are battling for second place in hopes of advancing to an April runoff. But they also must stop Emanuel from getting more than 50 percent and winning outright on Feb. 22.

Braun had 21 percent support and Chico 16 percent, with City Clerk Miguel del Valle at 7 percent and 9 percent undecided. The poll of 708 likely registered voters was conducted Saturday through Wednesday and has an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.

If you don’t watch TV in the Chicago media market, Chico has been up on the air, with an ad so terrible you really have to ask “Why?” Rahm’s ad buys seem to be amping up heading into the election, but considering he’s been in the 40-45% range for a month or so, it sure seems like the impact of his ads has already been priced into the polls.  The wild card would be if Carol Moseley Braun goes up on the air, but that is seeming…unlikely.

Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has a huge money advantage over his rivals in the race for Chicago mayor, financial reports filed Thursday show.

Emanuel started January with $8.3 million on hand, whereas former Chicago schools president Gery Chico had $2 million as of Dec. 31, according to reports the campaigns filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections. Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun has about $125,000 on hand, her spokeswoman Renee Ferguson said.

We’re reaching the point where the question is about ground game, turnout rates and voter enthusiasm.  As there hasn’t been a competitive mayoral election in over 2 decades in Chicago, it’s hard to say how that’s going to work out.

Going off of my completely uninformed gut, these are my guesses: Rahm’s going to have a hell of a GOTV operation.  There’s no way an old campaign salt like him overlooks the importance of that.  I’d imagine the same is true, but to a much lesser extent, for Braun.  That said, she doesn’t have a lot of money, so she’s going to depend on having a lot of volunteer support (or maybe help from whoever is paying her 4 mortgages).  The Chico campaign has never been kicking on all cylinders, gotta assume that trend is going to continue.

So if we assume that undecideds are less likely to vote come election day, and instead make up about 6% of the final electorate, that moves Rahm up to 45% just by shrinking the voter pool.  There are about half as many undecided whites as there are blacks, but historically whites vote more than blacks, so let’s say out of the 6% undecideds who end up voting, 3% black, 2% white, 1% hispanic.  I’d say from that we could assume they’d break 3% Rahm, 2% Braun, 1% Chico.  So Rahm’s at 48%.  Ground game could put him over the top.

So 50% on election day is within striking distance, but it’s hard to say how close it is without crosstabs that show enthusiasm.  I have to guess that Braun’s supporters are the most enthusiastic, as they’ve come to her despite the fact she’s done very little to actually attract them (meaning they’re not passive voters).  I guess we’ll see.

Is Rahm Getting Worried?

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Ceilings

If he isn’t, he should be.  That said, it sure looks like he is.

The Chicago for Rahm campaign issued a press release Thursday evening touting Emanuel’s plan for immigration reform…in Chicago.

“Just because Congress has yet to pass the Dream Act doesn’t mean we will wait for progress in Chicago,” Emanuel said in a statement. “All children in Chicago deserve to have access to a quality education, and we will make sure they have that opportunity.”

Emanuel’s plan would not provide a path to citizenship as a national DREAM Act would, but would “allow these children to access the same financial aid opportunities as every other child,” according to his campaign.

Now it’s an awfully big roll out for an announcement that he’s essentially planning on being squishy when it comes to illegal immigrants.  As if there’s someone running for Mayor who’s gonna take a hard line.

De Valle is pissed, which is pretty funny.

This obvious pander comes on the heels of a Teamsters Poll showing that he finally has an opponent who’s broken through the 12% ceiling (and has done so with vengeance).

Emanuel leads former U.S. senator Carol Moseley Braun, 42%-26%, in a survey commissioned by the Chicago Teamsters. Emanuel led with 36% in the Teamsters’ November poll.

Rahm has seemingly plateaued in the low 40’s, painfully close to the point where he could avoid a runoff.  Frankly, I thought the whole “get Meeks and Davis out so we can have a consensus black candidate” was dumb, because even if Davis’ and Meeks’ supporters broke for Braun 5-1, 10-1 or whatever, they still ran more of a risk of pushing Rahm over the 50% mark than they did of making sure whoever came in 2nd in the primary wasn’t Chico (which, of course, doesn’t matter if Rahm gets to 50).

What we see here is that seemingly every single Davis or Meeks supporter went to Braun, which is a staggering concept.

What’s worse for Rahm is it seems like there is now not only a consensus black candidate, but there’s a consensus non-Rahm candidate.  With Braun’s lead over Chico now matching Rahm’s lead over her, Millionaire Lobbyist isn’t going to go anywhere.

This is also an opportunity.  Braun’s been banging the nepotism equivalent of the black power drum pretty hard for a while, and it’s going to take some work for her to start building a cross-racial base.   Between the whites supporting Chico and the hispanics supporting DeValle, there are just about enough there to push Rahm past the magic number.  IF they can be wiggled loose.  And considering that neither Chico nor De Valle have a snowball’s chance in hell at the number 2 spot, it’s hard to imagine there aren’t a few there who actually want their votes to count…

Exit question:  If Braun isn’t making any money, how the hell does she pay her 4 mortgages on her multi-million dollar Hyde Park mansion?  Haha, oh yeah…

One is a loan from First Midwest Bank for $97,025, according to records on file at the Cook County Recorder of Deeds, and the other she owes to a millionaire TV station owner who is one of her past campaign contributors.

Written by updowndownup

January 14, 2011 at 8:42 am

Ouch…sure looks like it’s gonna be Rahm in a walk

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White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel looks ...

Inevitable?

The Teamsters released a poll yesterday that paints a very pretty picture for friends of Rahm…

Rahm Emanuel holds a 22-point lead over his nearest rival, and leads across racial and geographic lines.
• Emanuel currently receives 36% of the vote and leads his nearest competitor by more than 2:1 (Emanuel 36% / Davis 14% / Mosley Braun 13% / Chico 10% / Meeks 7% / Del Valle 4%).
• Emanuel is leading among whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics – and in every one of the city’s seven congressional districts.
• Emanuel also leads by 20-plus points in head-to-head scenarios against Danny Davis (Emanuel 54% / Davis 33%) and Carol Mosley Braun (Emanuel 55% / Mosley Braun 32%).Carol Mosley Braun has the highest name-identification of any candidate tested, but Rahm Emanuel and Danny Davis are the only candidates who receive a majority favorable rating.
• Gerry Chico 31% Favorable / 16% Unfavorable – 47% Name ID
• Danny Davis 55% Favorable / 24% Unfavorable – 79% Name ID
• Miguel Del Valle 24% Favorable / 13% Unfavorable – 37% Name ID
• Rahm Emanuel 58% Favorable / 29% Unfavorable – 87% Name ID
James Meeks 34% Favorable / 39% Unfavorable – 73% Name ID
• Carol Mosley Braun 48% Favorable / 42% Unfavorable – 90% Name ID

Caveats: The Teamsters are far from ideologically neutral and they don’t release the crosstabs.  Still, geez…

One thing this guarantees is that this is going to get very negative very quickly.  Carol Moseley Braun (yes, her name is misspelled in the quoted article, but in fairness I’m pretty sure I’ve done it too) has pretty much already admitted this is the road she’s going to be taking (when asked to commit to a positive campaign, she refused and said, “Politics ain’t beanbag.”).

This sets up an interesting dynamic because the breadth of Rahm’s support creates a real prisoner’s dilemma.  Negative campaigning, even when effective, tends to bring down the favorability of the attacker as well as the attacked amongst swing voters.  In 2 way races it isn’t too complicated, as it doesn’t matter if you drive your favorables down to 1 provided you drag your opponent down to 0.  In races like this, however, if Braun does a lot of attacking and brings down Rahm, other candidates like Danny Davis and James Meeks can stay above the fray and still reap the benefits of the attacks on Rahm.  So even though all of the non-Rahm candidates benefit from attacking Rahm, it’s irrational for each individual campaign to do the attacking.

Ultimately, I don’t know how much it will matter.  Rahm is going to be bathing in cash, and he’s already up on the air with a positive bio piece.  I don’t know where Moseley Braun could drum up enough cash to mount an ad campaign to come anywhere close to the saturation he’ll inevitably achieve.  It’ll probably come down to just taking pot shots through the press that will only add to the inevitability he’s trying to create.

Chico did better than I expected (a commenter called me out on not mentioning him in a previous article, so here he is).  He’s shown some ability to cross racial lines.  As he’s more socially liberal than Meeks, he might be better positioned to make a play at a larger chunk of white voters than Meeks could.  Problem for him is that if he’s going to build a white base, it’d be the same people who currently comprise Rahm’s base – north side, lake front liberals.  You never know, it could be the same kind of thing we saw with Huckabee and Romney in Iowa in 2008, but he’ll have to make a hell of a case to some major fundraisers and run a very impressive campaign to stay in the conversation.

Written by updowndownup

November 17, 2010 at 10:39 am